Monday, March 23, 2020

The Numbers Today

As of 3 pm, here's the numbers for Dallas County from Johns Hopkins:

Confirmed cases - 155
Deaths -4

From the Texas Tribune, here's the numbers for Texas (not just Dallas):

As of March 23 at noon, there were at least 373 coronavirus cases in Texas. There were 8 reported deaths. At least 10,055 people have been tested.


The Bigger Picture - Data from Google

Look at the jump in the numbers here in Texas in the last 2 days
Texas cases (Google)deaths
02/13/20201
first reported case, 15th in nation
02/27/2020
03/03/2020691
03/05/20201
03/10/2020
03/13/2020
03/20/20204355
03/21/204175
03/22/203346
03/23/207197

Okay, BREATHE.... some of the jump is due to them getting more samples analyzed by more labs (labs may have been closed over the weekend)

Why doesn't the Google data match the Texas Tribune (Texas Health Department) numbers? 
* Google's numbers were taken later in the day
* Texas Tribune is only reporting data from the Texas Health Department.  They are only reporting numbers from the labs (positive tests.)
* Google's numbers seem to come from some hospitals in addition to the Texas Health Department numbers.

Which should I believe? 
Assume both are correct and both are about 2 days out of date.  Texas Health Department is only reporting on samples that have come into a lab for testing and from data sent back by the testing labs.  It's not easy or convenient to get tested (and many people are turned away at this point.)  The Texas Health Department's numbers are not an accurate measure of the current environment.

Google's numbers are better and a bit more up-to-the-minute... BUT... rely on busy medical personnel taking time to turn in the data.

What are the real numbers?
I have more confidence in Johns Hopkins' numbers, though it's still low.  These do rely on people coming in and saying "hey, I am sick with something" and being diagnosed... so there's folks out there who just aren't feeling well but didn't go see a doc.

What's the use of the numbers?

There's an old saying "you can't control what you don't measure."  We won't know when we're winning the fight with COVID-19 if we don't have some measures of who's got it and how it's impacting things.



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