There's a term we use in anthropology (and other social sciences) -- "unintended consequences" that's coming into play right now. An 'unintended consequence' is an outcome that wasn't foreseen or intended. A good (current) example is that water in the canals in Venice, Italy is clearer now that there's no boat traffic and tourists. Fish and swans have been seen in places where they had vanished.
One unintended consequence is that there's no court trials for the interim. This means our criminal justice system is going to get overburdened very quickly and cases will drag on and on and on. They'll have to find a way to revamp the system if this continues.
Another is the failure of the gig economy. Many people who couldn't find jobs went into business as small entrepreneurs... musicians, artists, performers, etc. Those jobs have vanished.
The demand for home delivery of goods is high right now and companies are starting to offer delivery time slots for the future rather than "right now." They'll need a lot more drivers (which might be filled by some of the people from the gig economy) but that will end as the pandemic eases.
But closer to home - impulse purchases will likely go down.
Wednesday, July 22, 2020
Tuesday, March 24, 2020
Planning for Coronavirus - Part 1
Part 1
As if the situation wasn't scary enough already, memes like "anyone over age 60 is being left to die in Italy" is enough to give those of us over 60 the heebie-jeebies. The real situation (they may not be given aggressive care/intubated - https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1257852/Italy-coronavirus-intubating-elderly-pandemic-china-hospitals-Nadine-Dorries ) isn't terribly comforting.)
However...
(...you knew there had to be a 'however', right?) this doesn't mean we're helpless or doomed. When I saw that state governors were calling for retired medical staff to step up and help in the fight against coronavirus (allowing them to be re-licensed easily) it occurred to me that although we might not be trained medical personnel, we could learn some basic nursing skills and do some basic preparation (just in case) so that if any of the people we care about become really ill, we can do something more than just fetch a wet towel and wring our hands.
Right?
And if you don't need it now, the planning and setup will still be helpful the next time someone gets sick (or breaks a bone or has another problem.)
Let's get to work, then.
There should be three categories of things you need - A place, some supplies, and a bit of knowledge. This can be as elaborate (devoting a wing of your mansion to it and having your own servants) or as humble (a couch and a shoebox of first aid supplies) as you wish.
So... space.
These guidelines apply if you live by yourself -- if you need help, the place where you are resting should be easy to get at, easy to clean, and easy access to food and drink.
Make A Nursing Care Kit
You can use any convenient carry-all... a box, old purse, grocery bag, whatever. Put it in an easy to reach place. Fill it with
Thinking About Food
This will be personal choices, but in general you should have something like Pedialite or Gatorade or other drink that hydrates and provides some electrolytes. If you're not buying powder mixes, buy about two weeks' worth of drinks (something you like and something you will drink over the next 3 months... because these things don't keep forever.)
If you can drink them, consider buying some of the meal replacement shakes (particularly if you live alone.) Food delivery service may be difficult to find in some cases and it's good to be prepared.
Contacts
Whether or not you live alone, let others on social media know if you're ill.
SYMPTOM COMPARISON
In the interests of NOT spreading panic, here's a graphic that gives a breakdown to answer the question "do I have COVID-19?"
Here's the probable timeline of COVID-19 infection:
(news article that sparked my idea https://www.newsweek.com/new-york-governor-asks-retired-doctors-nurses-sign-call-amid-coronavirus-crisis-1492825)
As if the situation wasn't scary enough already, memes like "anyone over age 60 is being left to die in Italy" is enough to give those of us over 60 the heebie-jeebies. The real situation (they may not be given aggressive care/intubated - https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1257852/Italy-coronavirus-intubating-elderly-pandemic-china-hospitals-Nadine-Dorries ) isn't terribly comforting.)
However...
(...you knew there had to be a 'however', right?) this doesn't mean we're helpless or doomed. When I saw that state governors were calling for retired medical staff to step up and help in the fight against coronavirus (allowing them to be re-licensed easily) it occurred to me that although we might not be trained medical personnel, we could learn some basic nursing skills and do some basic preparation (just in case) so that if any of the people we care about become really ill, we can do something more than just fetch a wet towel and wring our hands.
Right?
And if you don't need it now, the planning and setup will still be helpful the next time someone gets sick (or breaks a bone or has another problem.)
Let's get to work, then.
There should be three categories of things you need - A place, some supplies, and a bit of knowledge. This can be as elaborate (devoting a wing of your mansion to it and having your own servants) or as humble (a couch and a shoebox of first aid supplies) as you wish.
So... space.
- It should be easy to get to (if things turn very serious and you need to get the patient to a hospital or EMS needs to transport them.)
- It should be easy to clean.
- It should allow some separation from others in the house. A separate room is ideal, but if you don't have that, look at making a couch or comfortable chair into a nursing station. If you're feeling whimsical, you can even make a pillow fort your nursing space: https://www.wikihow.com/Make-a-Pillow-Fort
- It should be easy for the patient to eat and drink while nestled there (a small table nearby, access to entertainment (books, computer, phone, whatever)
These guidelines apply if you live by yourself -- if you need help, the place where you are resting should be easy to get at, easy to clean, and easy access to food and drink.
Make A Nursing Care Kit
You can use any convenient carry-all... a box, old purse, grocery bag, whatever. Put it in an easy to reach place. Fill it with
- bandages/bandaids
- analgesic and fever reliever of your choice
- alcohol wipes (or cotton balls/pads with a bottle of alcohol or hydrogen peroxide)
- Thermometer
- Face masks (in case you or the person you're nursing has to go to a clinic)
- note pad and pencil (pen ink can dry up at the worst of times. Mechanical pencil is a good choice) Make a record of when the illness started and what the symptoms are so you can discuss it more effectively with medical personnel.
- cough medicine of your choice
- Remedies for some common ailments (because if you get one of those, you really might not want to have to go to the drug store for them if you're feeling bad) -- anti-nausea pills, allergy medication, diuretic, stool softener, gentle laxative, sleep aid.
- Optional: heating pad or ice pack (or reusable methods of heat and cold)
- Very optional - a scent of your choice (I like lavender but not always.)
The idea here is to have things quickly available for general illness (as well as for the coronavirus.)
Thinking About Food
This will be personal choices, but in general you should have something like Pedialite or Gatorade or other drink that hydrates and provides some electrolytes. If you're not buying powder mixes, buy about two weeks' worth of drinks (something you like and something you will drink over the next 3 months... because these things don't keep forever.)
If you can drink them, consider buying some of the meal replacement shakes (particularly if you live alone.) Food delivery service may be difficult to find in some cases and it's good to be prepared.
Contacts
Whether or not you live alone, let others on social media know if you're ill.
SYMPTOM COMPARISON
In the interests of NOT spreading panic, here's a graphic that gives a breakdown to answer the question "do I have COVID-19?"
Here's the probable timeline of COVID-19 infection:
(news article that sparked my idea https://www.newsweek.com/new-york-governor-asks-retired-doctors-nurses-sign-call-amid-coronavirus-crisis-1492825)
Monday, March 23, 2020
The Numbers Today
As of 3 pm, here's the numbers for Dallas County from Johns Hopkins:
Confirmed cases - 155
Deaths -4
From the Texas Tribune, here's the numbers for Texas (not just Dallas):
As of March 23 at noon, there were at least 373 coronavirus cases in Texas. There were 8 reported deaths. At least 10,055 people have been tested.
The Bigger Picture - Data from Google
Look at the jump in the numbers here in Texas in the last 2 days
Okay, BREATHE.... some of the jump is due to them getting more samples analyzed by more labs (labs may have been closed over the weekend)
Why doesn't the Google data match the Texas Tribune (Texas Health Department) numbers?
* Google's numbers were taken later in the day
* Texas Tribune is only reporting data from the Texas Health Department. They are only reporting numbers from the labs (positive tests.)
* Google's numbers seem to come from some hospitals in addition to the Texas Health Department numbers.
Which should I believe?
Assume both are correct and both are about 2 days out of date. Texas Health Department is only reporting on samples that have come into a lab for testing and from data sent back by the testing labs. It's not easy or convenient to get tested (and many people are turned away at this point.) The Texas Health Department's numbers are not an accurate measure of the current environment.
Google's numbers are better and a bit more up-to-the-minute... BUT... rely on busy medical personnel taking time to turn in the data.
What are the real numbers?
I have more confidence in Johns Hopkins' numbers, though it's still low. These do rely on people coming in and saying "hey, I am sick with something" and being diagnosed... so there's folks out there who just aren't feeling well but didn't go see a doc.
What's the use of the numbers?
There's an old saying "you can't control what you don't measure." We won't know when we're winning the fight with COVID-19 if we don't have some measures of who's got it and how it's impacting things.
Confirmed cases - 155
Deaths -4
From the Texas Tribune, here's the numbers for Texas (not just Dallas):
As of March 23 at noon, there were at least 373 coronavirus cases in Texas. There were 8 reported deaths. At least 10,055 people have been tested.
The Bigger Picture - Data from Google
Look at the jump in the numbers here in Texas in the last 2 days
Okay, BREATHE.... some of the jump is due to them getting more samples analyzed by more labs (labs may have been closed over the weekend)
Why doesn't the Google data match the Texas Tribune (Texas Health Department) numbers?
* Google's numbers were taken later in the day
* Texas Tribune is only reporting data from the Texas Health Department. They are only reporting numbers from the labs (positive tests.)
* Google's numbers seem to come from some hospitals in addition to the Texas Health Department numbers.
Which should I believe?
Assume both are correct and both are about 2 days out of date. Texas Health Department is only reporting on samples that have come into a lab for testing and from data sent back by the testing labs. It's not easy or convenient to get tested (and many people are turned away at this point.) The Texas Health Department's numbers are not an accurate measure of the current environment.
Google's numbers are better and a bit more up-to-the-minute... BUT... rely on busy medical personnel taking time to turn in the data.
What are the real numbers?
I have more confidence in Johns Hopkins' numbers, though it's still low. These do rely on people coming in and saying "hey, I am sick with something" and being diagnosed... so there's folks out there who just aren't feeling well but didn't go see a doc.
What's the use of the numbers?
There's an old saying "you can't control what you don't measure." We won't know when we're winning the fight with COVID-19 if we don't have some measures of who's got it and how it's impacting things.
What About The Data?
If you've been following the numbers for a bit, you may have noticed that they change in ways that are bizarre. As an example, here's part of a spreadsheet I did that collected numbers for Texas from the Google display:
The time of day that the numbers are being reported also changed. A state might have 20 cases if you took the numbers at 10 am... but 24 cases if you took it at 10 pm.
Why did the numbers go from 435 to 417 to 334? There was a change in the reporting -- Texas got official coronavirus test kits and instead of using hospital numbers they switched (over a 2 day period) to "official diagnosis via test kit" numbers.
The time of day that the numbers are being reported also changed. A state might have 20 cases if you took the numbers at 10 am... but 24 cases if you took it at 10 pm.
This is problematic. The original numbers seem to be those sent to the CDC from hospitals. The "test kit" numbers are only given AFTER someone has gone through all the procedures to get approved to take the test AND the person has taken the test. IF they have insurance and the ability to pay for the test and can get to a testing site (not everyone has a car and here in Texas nearly 22 percent of people are uninsured. That translates to "at a minimum, 1/5th of all people in Texas will have trouble getting the test even if they're very sick with COVID-19. so their data won't show up in the 'official count'.")
According to the Texas Health Department (https://dshs.texas.gov/) the labs can currently only process 26 samples per day. It can take up to a week to learn the results.
So the numbers we see are numbers from several days previously. If I'm feeling generous, I'll say that the "current number" shown on the coronavirus info page of your choice is actually for two days ago. If I'm not feeling generous, I'd say that it's a week out of date. The truth lies somewhere in between. At this point we're fairly early in the pandemic (only 2 months of data) and the real morbidity and mortality numbers won't show up for quite awhile.
Rate of Spread
A tweet just today (see below) from the head of the World Health Organization highlights something that I saw in my data last night -- the rate of spread is increasing. Some of this is due to lack of data... no real testing, people only show up at hospitals when they're really really sick, critically ill people at home who are going out in search of treatment for their symptoms (going to a pharmacy to get cough medicine, for instance) so we can only guess at the numbers who are infected with the virus. By the time they get to the attention of the medical monitors, they may have passed the virus along to dozens (or hundreds) of people -- and we're talking about a 2 week incubation period (our best guess.)
Feeling Helpless?
This is a big scary situation, and one that epidemiologists have been warning about for awhile. But I'd rather not leave you with a message of fear because in these times we have things that we can do... positive things.
* write about your experiences. Keep a blog and keep notes on what you're doing -- not only the medical prevention measures but blog about changes in work and socialization. THIS TYPE OF PANDEMIC WILL COME AGAIN (and again, and again.) The tips and tactics you write down now will help others when another novel virus rears its ugly head.
* keep checking on the vulnerable ones you know -- people with low income, elderly, immune compromised.
* understand that Scary Data shows trends but does not show an accurate to-the-second picture.
My advice on masks: Use one if you want (gloves, too) and don't feel embarrassed about it. Be sure to clean (or dispose) of the mask after each use (ditto gloves.) Likewise if you don't feel one is necessary, then don't use one... but don't shame the ones who do. I will be using masks (and occasionally gloves) because my husband and I are in the high risk category and because he has diabetes and Parkinson's and minor health crises can escalate rapidly with those two conditions.
Notes and Sources:
"Morbidity and Mortality" is epidemiologist-speak for "too sick to go to work" and "dead", respectively.
You can read an overview of some of the problems Dallas had on the 2nd day of "drive up testing" here: https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/03/22/day-2-of-dallas-countys-coronavirus-mobile-testing-leaves-some-patients-frustrated-concerned/
Tweet from the head of the World Health Organization today:
According to the Texas Health Department (https://dshs.texas.gov/) the labs can currently only process 26 samples per day. It can take up to a week to learn the results.
So the numbers we see are numbers from several days previously. If I'm feeling generous, I'll say that the "current number" shown on the coronavirus info page of your choice is actually for two days ago. If I'm not feeling generous, I'd say that it's a week out of date. The truth lies somewhere in between. At this point we're fairly early in the pandemic (only 2 months of data) and the real morbidity and mortality numbers won't show up for quite awhile.
Rate of Spread
A tweet just today (see below) from the head of the World Health Organization highlights something that I saw in my data last night -- the rate of spread is increasing. Some of this is due to lack of data... no real testing, people only show up at hospitals when they're really really sick, critically ill people at home who are going out in search of treatment for their symptoms (going to a pharmacy to get cough medicine, for instance) so we can only guess at the numbers who are infected with the virus. By the time they get to the attention of the medical monitors, they may have passed the virus along to dozens (or hundreds) of people -- and we're talking about a 2 week incubation period (our best guess.)
Feeling Helpless?
This is a big scary situation, and one that epidemiologists have been warning about for awhile. But I'd rather not leave you with a message of fear because in these times we have things that we can do... positive things.
* write about your experiences. Keep a blog and keep notes on what you're doing -- not only the medical prevention measures but blog about changes in work and socialization. THIS TYPE OF PANDEMIC WILL COME AGAIN (and again, and again.) The tips and tactics you write down now will help others when another novel virus rears its ugly head.
* keep checking on the vulnerable ones you know -- people with low income, elderly, immune compromised.
* understand that Scary Data shows trends but does not show an accurate to-the-second picture.
My advice on masks: Use one if you want (gloves, too) and don't feel embarrassed about it. Be sure to clean (or dispose) of the mask after each use (ditto gloves.) Likewise if you don't feel one is necessary, then don't use one... but don't shame the ones who do. I will be using masks (and occasionally gloves) because my husband and I are in the high risk category and because he has diabetes and Parkinson's and minor health crises can escalate rapidly with those two conditions.
Notes and Sources:
"Morbidity and Mortality" is epidemiologist-speak for "too sick to go to work" and "dead", respectively.
You can read an overview of some of the problems Dallas had on the 2nd day of "drive up testing" here: https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/03/22/day-2-of-dallas-countys-coronavirus-mobile-testing-leaves-some-patients-frustrated-concerned/
Tweet from the head of the World Health Organization today:
Sunday, March 22, 2020
Coronavirus Comments
I'm changing this blog over to my "Coronavirus In Texas" personal project. I don't want to fuel my Facebook feed with all the things I read and research, but my mind still needs an outlet... so this blog will be my nattering space and data analysis space.
A number of folks on Facebook are also tracking this.
Resources used - Johns Hopkins ARCGIS:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Texas Tribune (presumed updated daily) https://www.texastribune.org/2020/03/02/coronavirus-texas-cases-latest-updates-san-antonio/
From the "Unintended Consequences of COVID-19 File" a quote from the Dallas County website: Dallas County is cancelling all jury trials for Dallas County Criminal Courts, Civil Courts and Justice of the Peace (J.P.) Courts through May 8, 2020. Dallas County citizens summoned to appear at the Frank Crowley Criminal Courthouse, at the George Allen Civil Courthouse, or a J.P. Court prior to May 8, 2020 should not report nor call to reschedule their service.
All Dallas County Tax Offices are closed to the public for face-to-face transactions until further notice. Please see the tax website for more information."
https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus.php
Now https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 is showing individual spots in Texas. Most useful.
Dallas numbers are the highest in the state in spite of Houston being the first area where coronavirus was found.
A number of folks on Facebook are also tracking this.
Resources used - Johns Hopkins ARCGIS:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Texas Tribune (presumed updated daily) https://www.texastribune.org/2020/03/02/coronavirus-texas-cases-latest-updates-san-antonio/
From the "Unintended Consequences of COVID-19 File" a quote from the Dallas County website: Dallas County is cancelling all jury trials for Dallas County Criminal Courts, Civil Courts and Justice of the Peace (J.P.) Courts through May 8, 2020. Dallas County citizens summoned to appear at the Frank Crowley Criminal Courthouse, at the George Allen Civil Courthouse, or a J.P. Court prior to May 8, 2020 should not report nor call to reschedule their service.
All Dallas County Tax Offices are closed to the public for face-to-face transactions until further notice. Please see the tax website for more information."
Now https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 is showing individual spots in Texas. Most useful.
Dallas numbers are the highest in the state in spite of Houston being the first area where coronavirus was found.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)